Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

USA

vs
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ

Morocco

Round of 32Kansas City, USA04/07/2026 10:00 PM

Form (last 5)

USA
WWDWL
Morocco
WDWWD

Expected Goals (Avg)

USA1.42
Morocco1.15

Goals Against (Avg)

USA1.25
Morocco0.98

Weather

โ›ˆ

24ยฐ

Possible thunderstorm ยท Humid

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA โ€” Goals
0
7.8%
9.0%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
1
11.1%
12.8%
7.3%
2.8%
0.8%
2
7.9%
9.1%
5.2%
2.0%
0.6%
3
3.7%
4.3%
2.5%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.3%
1.5%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
12.8%
#21:0
11.1%
#32:1
9.1%
#40:1
9.0%
#52:0
7.9%
#60:0
7.8%
#71:2
7.3%
#82:2
5.2%
#90:2
5.2%
#103:1
4.3%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

12.8%

USA (avg 1.42 xG) and Morocco (avg 1.15 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Similar goal threat

    USA averages 1.42 xG, Morocco 1.15 xG per game.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Possible thunderstorm ยท Humid may slightly influence goal expectation.

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