Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช

Belgium

vs
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ

Senegal

Round of 32Atlanta, USA05/07/2026 07:00 PM

Form (last 5)

Belgium
WDWWD
Senegal
WWDWL

Expected Goals (Avg)

Belgium1.55
Senegal1.20

Goals Against (Avg)

Belgium1.10
Senegal1.05

Weather

โ˜€๏ธ

30ยฐ

Warm & sunny ยท Wind 10 km/h

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium โ€” Goals
0
6.6%
7.9%
4.7%
1.9%
0.6%
1
10.2%
12.2%
7.3%
2.9%
0.9%
2
7.9%
9.5%
5.7%
2.3%
0.7%
3
4.1%
4.9%
2.9%
1.2%
0.4%
4
1.6%
1.9%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
12.2%
#21:0
10.2%
#32:1
9.5%
#42:0
7.9%
#50:1
7.9%
#61:2
7.3%
#70:0
6.6%
#82:2
5.7%
#93:1
4.9%
#100:2
4.7%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

12.2%

Belgium (avg 1.55 xG) and Senegal (avg 1.20 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Similar goal threat

    Belgium averages 1.55 xG, Senegal 1.20 xG per game.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Warm & sunny ยท Wind 10 km/h may slightly influence goal expectation.

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