Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น

Portugal

vs
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ

Switzerland

Round of 32San Francisco, USA04/07/2026 07:00 PM

Form (last 5)

Portugal
WWWWW
Switzerland
WDWDW

Expected Goals (Avg)

Portugal1.88
Switzerland1.30

Goals Against (Avg)

Portugal0.85
Switzerland1.15

Weather

๐ŸŒซ

17ยฐ

Cool, light fog ยท Wind 20 km/h

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal โ€” Goals
0
4.4%
5.7%
3.7%
1.6%
0.5%
1
8.3%
10.7%
7.0%
3.0%
1.0%
2
7.8%
10.1%
6.6%
2.8%
0.9%
3
4.9%
6.3%
4.1%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.3%
3.0%
1.9%
0.8%
0.3%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
10.7%
#22:1
10.1%
#31:0
8.3%
#42:0
7.8%
#51:2
7.0%
#62:2
6.6%
#73:1
6.3%
#80:1
5.7%
#93:0
4.9%
#100:0
4.4%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

10.7%

Portugal (avg 1.88 xG) and Switzerland (avg 1.30 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Attacking advantage

    Portugal holds a clear xG advantage with ร˜ 1.88 expected goals.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Cool, light fog ยท Wind 20 km/h may slightly influence goal expectation.

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