Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท

France

vs
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต

Japan

Round of 32Los Angeles, USA03/07/2026 10:00 PM

Form (last 5)

France
WWWWD
Japan
WWDLW

Expected Goals (Avg)

France1.95
Japan1.10

Goals Against (Avg)

France0.80
Japan1.20

Weather

โ˜€๏ธ

26ยฐ

Clear ยท Wind 5 km/h

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France โ€” Goals
0
5.0%
5.5%
3.0%
1.1%
0.3%
1
9.8%
10.7%
5.9%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.5%
10.5%
5.8%
2.1%
0.6%
3
6.2%
6.8%
3.7%
1.4%
0.4%
4
3.0%
3.3%
1.8%
0.7%
0.2%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
10.7%
#22:1
10.5%
#31:0
9.8%
#42:0
9.5%
#53:1
6.8%
#63:0
6.2%
#71:2
5.9%
#82:2
5.8%
#90:1
5.5%
#100:0
5.0%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

10.7%

France (avg 1.95 xG) and Japan (avg 1.10 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Attacking advantage

    France holds a clear xG advantage with ร˜ 1.95 expected goals.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Clear ยท Wind 5 km/h may slightly influence goal expectation.

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