Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท

Argentina

vs
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท

Croatia

Round of 32Dallas, USA03/07/2026 07:00 PM

Form (last 5)

Argentina
WWWDW
Croatia
DWWLW

Expected Goals (Avg)

Argentina1.78
Croatia1.25

Goals Against (Avg)

Argentina0.88
Croatia1.10

Weather

โ˜€๏ธ

32ยฐ

Hot & dry ยท Wind 8 km/h

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina โ€” Goals
0
5.1%
6.3%
3.9%
1.6%
0.5%
1
9.0%
11.2%
7.0%
2.9%
0.9%
2
8.0%
10.0%
6.3%
2.6%
0.8%
3
4.7%
5.9%
3.7%
1.5%
0.5%
4
2.1%
2.6%
1.7%
0.7%
0.2%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
11.2%
#22:1
10.0%
#31:0
9.0%
#42:0
8.0%
#51:2
7.0%
#60:1
6.3%
#72:2
6.3%
#83:1
5.9%
#90:0
5.1%
#103:0
4.7%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

11.2%

Argentina (avg 1.78 xG) and Croatia (avg 1.25 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Attacking advantage

    Argentina holds a clear xG advantage with ร˜ 1.78 expected goals.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Hot & dry ยท Wind 8 km/h may slightly influence goal expectation.

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