Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช

Germany

vs
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ

Mexico

Round of 32Seattle, USA01/07/2026 07:00 PM

Form (last 5)

Germany
WWDWW
Mexico
WDWLW

Expected Goals (Avg)

Germany1.70
Mexico1.38

Goals Against (Avg)

Germany0.92
Mexico1.40

Weather

๐ŸŒง

18ยฐ

Light rain ยท Wind 12 km/h

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany โ€” Goals
0
4.8%
6.6%
4.6%
2.1%
0.7%
1
8.2%
11.3%
7.8%
3.6%
1.2%
2
6.9%
9.6%
6.6%
3.0%
1.0%
3
3.9%
5.4%
3.7%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.7%
2.3%
1.6%
0.7%
0.3%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
11.3%
#22:1
9.6%
#31:0
8.2%
#41:2
7.8%
#52:0
6.9%
#60:1
6.6%
#72:2
6.6%
#83:1
5.4%
#90:0
4.8%
#100:2
4.6%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

11.3%

Germany (avg 1.70 xG) and Mexico (avg 1.38 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Similar goal threat

    Germany averages 1.70 xG, Mexico 1.38 xG per game.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Light rain ยท Wind 12 km/h may slightly influence goal expectation.

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