Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ

Netherlands

vs
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท

South Korea

Round of 32Houston, USA05/07/2026 10:00 PM

Form (last 5)

Netherlands
WWDWW
South Korea
WDLWW

Expected Goals (Avg)

Netherlands1.60
South Korea1.05

Goals Against (Avg)

Netherlands1.00
South Korea1.30

Weather

โ˜€๏ธ

34ยฐ

Very hot ยท Wind 6 km/h

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands โ€” Goals
0
7.3%
7.6%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
11.6%
12.2%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
2
9.3%
9.8%
5.1%
1.8%
0.5%
3
5.0%
5.2%
2.7%
1.0%
0.3%
4
2.0%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
12.2%
#21:0
11.6%
#32:1
9.8%
#42:0
9.3%
#50:1
7.6%
#60:0
7.3%
#71:2
6.4%
#83:1
5.2%
#92:2
5.1%
#103:0
5.0%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

12.2%

Netherlands (avg 1.60 xG) and South Korea (avg 1.05 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Attacking advantage

    Netherlands holds a clear xG advantage with ร˜ 1.60 expected goals.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Very hot ยท Wind 6 km/h may slightly influence goal expectation.

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