Thomas Kostrewa
DE|EN|PT
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ

Spain

vs
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท

Brazil

Round of 32Miami, USA02/07/2026 10:00 PM

Form (last 5)

Spain
WWWDW
Brazil
WWLWW

Expected Goals (Avg)

Spain1.92
Brazil1.85

Goals Against (Avg)

Spain0.78
Brazil0.95

Weather

โ˜€๏ธ

29ยฐ

Sunny ยท Humid

Importance

KO-Spiel

Knockout โ€“ One game decides it all.

Probability of all exact scores

i
Poisson-Modell auf Basis historischer xG-Durchschnittswerte. Normalisiert auf 0โ€“4 Tore pro Team.
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil โ€” Goals
0
1
2
3
4
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain โ€” Goals
0
2.5%
4.7%
4.3%
2.7%
1.2%
1
4.8%
8.9%
8.3%
5.1%
2.4%
2
4.6%
8.6%
7.9%
4.9%
2.3%
3
3.0%
5.5%
5.1%
3.1%
1.4%
4
1.4%
2.6%
2.4%
1.5%
0.7%
lower probabilityhigher probability

Top 10 most likely results

#11:1
8.9%
#22:1
8.6%
#31:2
8.3%
#42:2
7.9%
#53:1
5.5%
#61:3
5.1%
#73:2
5.1%
#82:3
4.9%
#91:0
4.8%
#100:1
4.7%

If I had to pick exactly ONE result today:

My Conclusion

1:1

8.9%

Spain (avg 1.92 xG) and Brazil (avg 1.85 xG) are closely matched in attacking output. Both teams show solid defensive records, making high-scoring outcomes unlikely. The model rates 1:1 as most probable given how closely the xG values and recent form align.

Why does the model rate 1:1 highest?

  • ๐ŸŽฏ

    Similar goal threat

    Spain averages 1.92 xG, Brazil 1.85 xG per game.

  • ๐Ÿ›ก

    Defensively solid

    Both teams rank among the tournament's stronger defensive sides.

  • โš–๏ธ

    Balanced form

    Both teams' performance values are very close to each other.

  • ๐ŸŒฆ

    Weather factor

    Sunny ยท Humid may slightly influence goal expectation.

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